Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 29.701487 33.128609 37.078750 42.041192 48.218398 55.813492 66.129890
2025-04-06 24.338386 28.468156 33.651422 40.868896 51.093070 65.873925 90.809573
2025-04-13 22.094046 26.878243 33.336955 43.225329 59.191589 86.984606 150.247347
2025-04-20 19.703357 24.572361 31.464316 42.728903 62.786808 103.626987 230.962555
2025-04-27 18.118644 23.074509 30.381546 43.049728 67.839804 127.636894 418.516854
2025-05-04 16.916533 21.926563 29.576048 43.553455 73.473924 160.066516 1026.114800
2025-05-11 15.867744 20.858073 28.695939 43.662310 78.361214 199.078779 6241.789568
2025-05-18 14.856533 19.727883 27.538544 42.954551 81.020451 237.092294 NaN
2025-05-25 14.132069 18.967077 26.891502 43.105902 86.129991 304.674987 NaN
2025-06-01 13.433972 18.180618 26.095751 42.768059 89.775560 384.370431 NaN
2025-06-08 12.786820 17.421597 25.259822 42.173286 92.430722 481.395687 NaN
2025-06-15 12.220594 16.751651 24.513308 41.639503 95.155993 620.358722 NaN
2025-06-22 11.722885 16.168864 23.885159 41.310403 98.794719 868.715125 NaN
2025-06-29 11.173527 15.465373 22.970168 40.146953 98.677101 1080.767097 NaN
2025-07-06 11.053260 15.478065 23.411533 42.421374 115.199670 4970.873473 NaN
2025-07-13 10.654124 14.984164 22.821311 41.935153 118.676674 24522.789091 NaN
2025-07-20 10.365371 14.664265 22.545789 42.243864 126.946613 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 10.114723 14.395340 22.346941 42.730928 137.196553 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 9.848733 14.083475 22.032819 42.835944 145.610112 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 9.535664 13.671334 21.479680 42.150066 148.108589 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 9.311190 13.407601 21.217024 42.296637 157.587606 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 9.064370 13.091394 20.820226 41.969237 163.245681 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 8.814115 12.758047 20.364943 41.392764 166.425293 NaN NaN